Brent Crude Oil - Seasonality

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Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Probability %	70%	60%	60%	70%	56%	78%	67%	56%	50%	56%	56%	56%
Average return %	+4.01%	+1.98%	+0.73%	+1.20%	+3.93%	+2.41%	+2.14%	-2.51%	+0.43%	-0.45%	-1.88%	+1.76%
2026	+13.92%	+5.12%	+42.68%	+7.20%	-1.97%	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
2025	+1.38%	-3.78%	+1.59%	-15.83%	+0.84%	+6.31%	+7.43%	-6.25%	-1.77%	-1.91%	-2.05%	-4.08%
2024	+4.56%	+1.69%	+6.21%	-0.77%	-6.05%	+4.80%	-5.61%	-4.97%	-6.27%	+1.39%	+0.68%	+2.33%
2023	-0.52%	-2.35%	-4.27%	+0.55%	-9.62%	+3.87%	+13.29%	+1.64%	+6.18%	-7.79%	-4.89%	-4.72%
2022	+14.76%	+9.76%	+6.88%	+2.32%	+14.65%	-11.24%	-4.64%	-8.01%	-10.98%	+9.01%	-6.29%	-1.22%
2021	+6.25%	+17.04%	-2.61%	+6.41%	+5.23%	+6.22%	+1.06%	-5.01%	+9.33%	+6.91%	-17.31%	+12.35%
2020	-14.21%	-12.27%	-46.95%	+0.49%	+42.90%	+9.06%	+5.45%	+4.04%	-6.58%	-10.31%	+26.20%	+8.19%
2019	+13.09%	+8.99%	+1.92%	+6.63%	-13.97%	+4.44%	+0.48%	-8.92%	0.00%	+0.62%	+4.71%	+5.72%
2018	+3.02%	-6.04%	+7.12%	+7.72%	+3.84%	+2.15%	-6.34%	+4.62%	+6.56%	-9.30%	-20.76%	-9.52%
2017	-2.18%	+1.67%	-5.27%	-2.76%	-2.48%	-3.92%	+8.10%	+0.27%	+7.43%	+7.31%	+2.77%	+6.77%

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Correlation

Pre-election

51.59%

2022

69.08%

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