Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. - ARI - Seasonality

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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. - ARI - Seasonality

Seasonality Charts

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Correlation

Pre-election

73.90%

2017

92.45%

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Probability %	70%	50%	60%	70%	70%	50%	50%	50%	67%	78%	78%	67%
Average return %	+3.84%	+1.62%	-6.69%	+0.75%	+1.62%	+0.70%	-0.64%	-0.57%	-6.31%	+2.27%	+4.79%	-3.00%
2026	+11.67%	-1.94%	-0.38%	+3.60%	+0.18%	-2.55%	-38.01%	+4.38%	-7.09%	--	--	--
2025	+2.31%	+14.33%	-5.53%	-2.09%	+4.91%	-1.53%	-0.62%	+10.08%	-4.34%	-3.36%	+3.47%	-4.44%
2024	-4.94%	+0.45%	-0.62%	-13.55%	+4.88%	-3.07%	+11.34%	-2.84%	-13.22%	-3.26%	+4.05%	-6.38%
2023	+13.10%	-5.59%	-18.97%	+8.70%	-0.30%	+12.19%	+4.24%	-7.46%	-7.23%	-1.68%	+8.23%	+8.91%
2022	+3.72%	-4.40%	+6.74%	-13.57%	+5.73%	-17.99%	+22.41%	-8.84%	-28.76%	+35.66%	+9.77%	-12.94%
2021	+0.09%	+18.87%	+5.12%	+8.88%	+2.89%	+1.92%	-4.58%	+2.17%	-4.63%	+2.09%	-10.63%	-2.73%
2020	-0.05%	-11.38%	-54.20%	+9.84%	+0.98%	+19.20%	-5.20%	-3.87%	+0.78%	-3.44%	+23.91%	+3.62%
2019	+9.24%	-0.22%	+0.22%	+2.97%	-1.92%	+0.05%	+2.34%	-1.43%	+3.34%	-4.54%	-0.16%	+0.11%
2018	-1.52%	+0.50%	-1.53%	+0.22%	+3.16%	-1.67%	+4.43%	+1.78%	-2.88%	-0.85%	+1.23%	-12.04%
2017	+4.75%	+5.63%	+2.28%	+2.55%	-4.30%	+0.49%	-2.80%	+0.33%	+0.11%	-0.22%	+3.21%	-1.07%

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