Operator: Please note that this call is being transmitted as well as recorded by audio webcast and will subsequently be made available for replay in the Internet. [Operator Instructions] The floor will be open for questions following Bettina Orlopp and Carsten Schmitt's presentation. Let me now turn the floor over to our CEO, Bettina Orlopp.
Bettina Orlopp: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our earnings call. Carsten and I are pleased to present the results for the first half of a truly remarkable year for Commerzbank. We again achieved record results in an especially demanding environment. This achievement is a credit first and foremost, to our clients and our people. The continued partnership and unwavering trust of our clients deserve our sincere appreciation and the dedication and commitment of our outstanding team, both in Germany and abroad, are the foundation of our success. Our performance demonstrates the fundamental resilience of our business model and the focused execution of our team, even while navigating the complexities of a public takeover discussion at a mixed macroeconomic backdrop. Geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty and the volatility in energy prices with its impact on inflation has added another layer of complexity. Let's dive right into the figures that prove the momentum of our financial development. In the first half of 2026, we generated strong revenues of EUR 6.5 billion, a significant increase of 7% year-on-year. Our enhanced operating leverage is evident as our operating result grew by an even stronger 14% to EUR 2.7 billion. This operational strength translates directly into a record net result of EUR 1.8 billion for the first 6 months, a 40% increase compared to the previous year, which included restructuring charges for our Momentum strategy. The favorable development is the result of a consistent and successful strategy execution. Our cost discipline remains a cornerstone of this success. The cost-income ratio improved significantly to just 53%, including compulsory contributions. The net return on tangible equity reached an excellent 12.6%, which is a tangible proof of our capital-efficient and profitable business model. And all this is built upon a CET 1 ratio that remains strong at 14.4%, even after accounting for significant capital distribution. This brings me to our capital return policy, which remains a central pillar of our equity story and a key driver of shareholder value. Our strategy comes with a full commitment to a total payout of 100% until our CET 1 target of 13.5% is reached. For 2026, this translates into a planned capital return of EUR 3.2 billion, representing an attractive total yield of 8%. And we are already acting on this commitment. Just last month, we applied for a new share buyback of up to EUR 1.2 billion as a key component of payout for this year. The ECB has already approved our application. And as soon as the German Finance Agency approves as well, we will do the final preparation to actually start the program. Alongside the share buyback, we are planning a higher dividend for 2026. We are targeting a dividend share of at least 50% of the total capital return. Looking ahead, our path is clear. As our profitability continues to grow, we see a credible trajectory to increasing the total yield to 11% in 2028 and an even more compelling 14% by 2030. This is a financial translation of our Momentum strategy, a clear and unwavering focus on creating sustainable and attractive shareholder value. Our strong performance is underpinned by a German economy that despite all headwinds, shows resilience. Due to the slightly improved GDP figures for the last quarters, we lift our expectation from 0.6% to 1% GDP growth for the full year 2026. While sentiment in the Mittelstand remains cautious, we have seen an improvement of the Ifo Index and a surprisingly good development of new orders in the second quarter, which could signal a pickup in activity. Furthermore, the latest ECB lending survey indicates an improving demand for credit from corporates and the German government has launched important reform initiatives for the pension system and the labor market. These initiatives could provide further tailwinds when implemented short term. This increases our confidence to reach our outlook 2026, which we already raised in May and includes a targeted return on tangible equity of around 12% and a cost-income ratio of 53%. Our Momentum targets also remain fully in place, providing a clear trajectory for profitable growth and increasing efficiency. It shows a steady improvement in our net RoTE targets towards 17% in 2028 and a 21% in 2030, while our cost-income ratio is planned to improve to 43%. This future path is built on a solid track record of successful transformation. At the end of this year, we will have improved our profitability by approximately EUR 3 billion since 2021, and we consistently have exceeded our ambitious financial targets. Market has clearly rewarded this performance, as you can tell from our share price, which rose by more than 600%. And this brings me directly to our management priorities. The first and most important one is to execute our strategy with continued discipline. "Momentum 2030" is working. It is delivering, and it is a benchmark against which any alternative must be measured. Our focus is on further development of the business model and the consistent delivery of strong financial results. Second, we will further drive performance. This means leveraging our excellent client franchise and the deep trustful relationships our teams have built over many years. It also means sustaining the high motivation of our employees who are the bedrock of our success. And third, we will protect value. As Management Board, we are committed to acting in the best interest of all our stakeholders. This includes constructive strategic discussions with UniCredit. The clear objective is to maximize value and to ensure the long-term success of Commerzbank. A key accelerator of our progress and a central element of our Momentum strategy is artificial intelligence. We are moving with speed and precision from initiatives to concrete proof points that realize tangible value. To recap, we are targeting cumulative investments in AI of around EUR 600 million through 2030, which are expected to generate a value contribution of approximately EUR 500 million per annum by 2030. In the second quarter, we made significant progress. We have completed the rollout of AI tools like MS Copilot and Google Gemini to all employees and launched a dedicated AI academy to foster the culture of digital innovation. Our AI-powered Agent Assist is now available to around 2,800 employees, enhancing the quality and efficiency of client interactions in our remote advisory and call centers. Furthermore, AI is helping us to modernize our IT landscape. In the first half of 2026 alone, we decommissioned 10% of all IT systems. For us, AI is not a distant vision. It is a core driver of our transformation, delivering tangible results already today. The strong group performance is driven by the strength of our client business. In Corporate Clients, we have once again proven our position as a clear #1 in Germany. The latest Finance Survey named us the leading Mittelstandsbank and the best bank for Corporate Clients overall. This is a testament to our strong trustful client relationships. Our success is built on deep client orientation, a locally established and a globally networked franchise and market-leading products. This is exemplified by our successful expansion of commodity products, which we have started to support our clients with the trading of physical gas. Furthermore, we have expanded our offering for Mittelstand clients who use our direct banking services. Overall, we are the partner of choice for the German Mittelstand, and we are continuously investing to defend and expand this leadership position. Our Private and Small Business Customers segment also shows an excellent momentum. The key driver here is our securities business, which is significantly boosting our fee income. We achieved a strong 10% growth in net commission income in PSBC Germany. This growth is fueled by strong client activity. Discretionary portfolio management volumes grew by an impressive 20% year-on-year to around EUR 25 billion. The total securities volume held by our clients increased by 16% to EUR 285 billion. And at comdirect, the number of trades increased by 5%. This success is consistently validated by external recognition. For the ninth consecutive year, we were named the best branch-based bank and with comdirect, the best direct bank in Germany. This proves that our two-brand strategy is the right approach to serve the needs of our clients. Now I would like to turn to the takeover offer from UniCredit. The offer period has ended and the results speaks a clear language. UniCredit has reached access to almost 50% of voting rights. Also, the offer was not supported by independent shareholders. Only 2.7% of our institutional and retail investors tendered their shares and a large portion of the shares tendered was most likely borrowed by UniCredit-linked financial institutions. However, we have to navigate the way forward. This requires a professional level of collaboration to develop a common path that reflects the emerging shareholder structure, including technicalities when it comes to legal and financial topics. Hence, we have started talks on this, which is in the genuine interest of both UniCredit and Commerzbank as we are both determined to create value for our shareholders, clients and employees. I'm optimistic that step by step, we can find common ground on governance and also on the business model. The governance framework is clear. Any structural changes such as a domination agreement require a qualified majority of at least 75% of the votes at our Annual General Meeting. This is key for the realization of major parts of synergies while always considering the rights of minority shareholders. Beyond this, only full ownership via squeeze-out provides a clean path towards exercising full control. The Management Board and the Supervisory Board of Commerzbank have a fiduciary duty to all shareholders. We will continue to work in the best interest of all our investors and to protect the rights of our minority shareholders. Our mandate is to ensure that the value generated by Commerzbank benefits all of you. This leads me to the conclusion that besides Momentum 2030, only a joint approach has the potential to create value for all stakeholders. Our Momentum strategy represents a proven, reliable and highly attractive plan with limited execution risk. It is a tangible road map to substantial value creation. In contrast, the Commerzbank Unlocked approach presented by UniCredit is in our firm opinion, based on incomplete outside information and assumptions in terms of value creation and comes with significant execution risks. Moreover, it does not reflect value-accretive business, especially when it comes to our international network. Therefore, our position is clear. We are ready for constructive discussions towards a jointly developed solution and realistic value creation assumptions. This will avoid costly misunderstandings of the Commerzbank business model. Let me summarize my key takeaways for you today. First, we achieved a record H1 result, and we fully confirm our guidance and targets. We are a bank that delivers. Second, we continue to focus on the disciplined implementation of our Momentum strategy. This is our plan for delivering reliable shareholder value with low execution risk. And third, we are ready to find a constructive solution with UniCredit, and we will always work in the best interest of all stakeholders. Our shareholders continue to benefit from our strong delivery and the strategic optionality that comes with the current situation. And with that, I'm happy to hand over to Carsten, who will guide you through the detailed financials.
Carsten Schmitt: Thank you, Bettina, and a warm welcome also from my side. Bettina has set out the strategic picture. We are performing well. Momentum 2030 is progressing, and we generate attractive shareholder returns. Since 2021, we have consistently improved our performance and delivered on our commitments. This quarter is another step on that journey. In Q2, we have continued to make progress where it matters. Revenues are up and costs are managed in line with our target cost-income ratio while increasing investments. Continuously improving this positive operating leverage is at the heart of our Momentum 2030 strategy. The risk result continues to be well contained and the capital ratio remains strong. With these positive developments, we have achieved our best ever quarterly operating result of EUR 1.367 billion. We are delivering these results in a less supportive interest rate environment, especially in Poland and facing ongoing geopolitical headwinds. This demonstrates the strength of our franchise, the resilience of our business model and the progress we are making in executing our strategy. With a net RoTE of 12.5% in the quarter, we are firmly on course to reach our 12% target for the year. I will now go through the line items in more detail, starting with revenues. Revenues are up 9% year-on-year and the uplift is broad-based. Net commission income has again grown by 7% compared to last year. The strongest contribution came from PSBC Germany. The net interest income of EUR 2.59 billion is up slightly compared to Q1 and basically stable compared to last year. This is in line with our expectations, and we anticipate a pickup in the second half. In contrast, the fair value result is up EUR 92 million year-on-year and EUR 21 million compared with Q1. This mainly reflects the impact of lower interest rates, particularly in Poland and to a lesser extent, in the Eurozone. Other income, excluding mBank's FX loan provisions was also higher. The EUR 19 million year-on-year increase mainly reflects tax-related effects and realization gains. The quarter-on-quarter improvement was additionally driven by the nonrecurring hedge results and the seasonally higher dividends from participations. The next 2 slides cover the fee income. Net commission income is up 7% year-on-year, supported by all customer segments, underlining the quality of our revenue growth. The very healthy 6% increase in Corporate Clients was driven by cash management, trade finance and capital markets. Bond market activity remained particularly strong and continued the momentum we saw in Q1. Net commission income growth in PSBC Germany was an excellent 11% year-on-year. The securities business was the main driver. This includes both advisory business at Commerzbank and transaction-based business at comdirect. Payments also developed well, supported by the account fee increases introduced last year. We expect the contribution from this source to normalize over the coming quarters. Overall, the growth demonstrates the strength of our franchise across all customer groups. I will now move to interest income on Slide 19. The net interest income reflects two opposing effects, business growth and lower Central Bank rates. Net, they have largely balanced out this quarter. Looking at the segments in Corporate Clients, higher loan and deposit volumes resulted in a healthy increase of the net interest income of 7% year-on-year. In Private and Small Business Customers Germany, NII grew by 10% year-on-year based on the ongoing improvement of the profitability of deposits. At mBank, the picture is different. Lower policy rates in Poland more than offset higher volumes. As a result, net interest income declined. However, this was compensated by a better fair value result from rates hedging activities. Adding the 2 line items together, this results in EUR 9 million higher rates-related revenues at mBank year-on-year. The story is similar in Others and Consolidation, where year-on-year lower net interest income is partially offset in the fair value result. On the next 2 slides, I will go through the volume development. Quarter-on-quarter deposits were overall stable in PSBC Germany and Corporate Clients. Corporate Clients have attracted EUR 2 billion additional sight deposits, while PSBC Germany has seen a decline in call money by EUR 2 billion. Competition for call deposits remains very intense in Germany. We, therefore, saw some outflows of highly rate-sensitive deposits to competitors offering teaser rates above 3%. We stay disciplined and continue to prioritize profitability. In the loan business, PSBC Germany had stable volumes, while Corporate Clients has sustained its very substantial volume expansion, keeping it well ahead of target. More details will follow on Slide 21. In the last 12 months, Corporate Clients achieved a remarkable average loan growth of EUR 17 billion or 16% thereof EUR 8 billion in the first half of 2026. This level of loan growth reflects the strength of our franchise and the trust our clients place in us. Demand from our clients remains largely international. Encouragingly, we have recently seen relatively more activity within Europe. We are also seeing the first signs of a recovery in Germany, albeit coming from a low level. With Institutionals, we have increased revenues throughout the last 12 months despite a lower growth in trade finance. Overall, we are encouraged by the trajectory of the loan business. Our expectation is that the slight trend of more European demand can be maintained and are cautiously optimistic for a pickup in Germany. This brings me to our NII outlook for 2026. We confirm our outlook for NII of around EUR 8.6 billion. So far, we have only seen a slight increase in H1 compared to H2 of last year. In the second half, we expect a noticeable pickup. Rates in Poland, which were a drag in the first half, should stabilize and the NII increase in mBank. The contributions from the replication portfolio will increase with further rollovers. The expected higher ECB rates will be beneficial, and we anticipate further volume growth. With all these drivers moving in the same direction, we are confident that the net interest income will increase over the coming quarters and reach around EUR 8.6 billion for the full year. As discussed previously, the replication portfolio provides a significant structural tailwind and will add EUR 400 million to EUR 600 million NII every year until 2030. Updated projections are included in the appendix. And now to costs on Slide 23. Group costs are fully aligned with our Momentum 2030 targets. We continue with significant investments where it matters while keeping a firm grip on efficiency. In the Group, excluding mBank, we increased IT investments by 12% and further expanded our shoring and sourcing activities. We have added staff in a few key areas while also absorbing salary increases and costs related to our employee share programme. Despite these investments, costs in the Group, excluding mBank, remained flat. The increases were offset by active cost management, lower burdens from equity-based compensation and the nonrecurrence of a one-off from last year. mBank has continued investing in its business but also had to absorb higher compulsory contributions. Overall, we are well on our way to reach our target of a cost-income ratio of 53% this year or 51%, excluding compulsory contributions, an improvement of 4 percentage points from last year. The risk result came in at EUR 202 million. This is fully in line with our expectations and outlook. Default rates in Germany are edging up slightly. However, most of the increase relates to small service sector companies where our exposure is limited. When looking at the default rates in the German Mittelstand, trends are broadly stable with only a very moderate uptick. The portfolio remains highly resilient with an unchanged nonperforming exposure ratio of only 1.1%. We have maintained our approach to overlays, and there has been no material change in the outstanding amounts. Year-to-date, the increase of the risk result was only around EUR 44 million. However, given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including the conflict in the Middle East, we maintain our full year guidance of a risk result of around EUR 850 million. This concludes the view on the key line items. Slide 25 summarizes the drivers of the EUR 898 million net result. The tax rate was 28% in the quarter. For the full year, we expect a tax rate close to 30%, mainly driven by a higher corporate tax rate in Poland. As I've covered the main developments in the segments already, I will now jump straight to Slide 30 and the development of RWA and capital. In Q2, we have around EUR 3 billion higher RWA quarter-on-quarter due to the expanding loan business in mBank and the assets in the liquidity portfolio of treasury in Others and Consolidation. RWA from higher volumes in Corporate Clients were more than offset by a new SRT. Capital is slightly higher as the OCI increased. In line with our capital return policy and commitment of a 100% payout ratio, we have reserved the full net result after AT1 coupon payments amounting to EUR 1.7 billion for distribution. Thereof, part will be utilized for the share buyback of up to EUR 1.2 billion that has already been approved by the ECB. The CET 1 ratio is therefore at 14.4%. In Q2, we have applied for an adjustment of the scope of our internal credit risk models. We expect ECB approval in Q3. Once implemented, the change should lead to a significant reduction in RWA. Based on our current calculations, the impact should be in the mid- to high single-digit billion range and gradually materialize by the end of Q2 2027. This will further strengthen our capital position and support profitable growth. Depending on the timing and final approval, this may reduce the volume of SRTs we issue this year. And now to the outlook. We are firmly on track for another record year and confirm our unchanged outlook for the year. We expect total revenues of approximately EUR 13.2 billion based on strong NII and NCI growth. We maintain our outlook for the risk result of around EUR 850 million. Based on costs of around EUR 7 billion, we target a cost-income ratio of approximately 53%. We confirm our net result target of at least EUR 3.4 billion, leading to a net return on tangible equity of around 12%. And we confirm our plan for a payout ratio of 100% after AT1 coupon payments and expect our CET 1 ratio to be above 14% at year-end. To summarize, the unchanged outlook and the record results clearly confirm our financial strength and potential. We will continue to deliver. And with that, I conclude the presentation. Thank you for your attention, and Bettina and I are now happy and looking forward to answer your questions.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Tarik El Mejjad from Bank of America.
Tarik El Mejjad: I have 2, please. First, on the deal with UniCredit. Clearly, there's a changed tone here in regards to UniCredit, and which is good to see it could remove that deadlock -- sorry. Your red lines were the valuation and strategy of Commerzbank Unlocked, especially on the international markets deleveraging. So what all these talks will include that you have post Q2? And how far are you ready to compromise on the strategy on that specific point? And also in Q2 results for UniCredit, CEO mentioned that some of the restructuring costs, EUR 2 billion, EUR 3 billion will be booked in Commerzbank accounts, possibly as soon as '27. Is that something that you can have a say or a choice on that? And should we start to adjust our numbers on that regard? And second question is on the mix of cash and share buyback. You announced up to EUR 1.2 billion. Should we expect another tranche of buyback or the remainder will be mostly in the form of dividend?
Bettina Orlopp: Yes, I mean, indeed, what we now need to do is to sit down and develop a joint solution. And I think it starts with exchanging views on what we see, what the strengths are. We also have some technical details to clarify, but we also need to work out how we collaborate in the current situation with UniCredit having a little bit less than 50%. But I think still we should identify areas where we can already create value in a joint approach. And then probably we also should think a little bit about a target picture midterm. And I mean, I think we should start the dialogue and then we will come back whenever we have a solution. I think that is a better way than the other way around, being now very transparent on what we wish or not wish. When it comes to restructuring costs and what has been said by UniCredit, I think it's outside-in assumptions. And I mean, we don't know any details, and it's very clear that we, as Management Board, but also as Supervisory Board, our mandate is to protect the institution to protect the interest of our stakeholders. So we can't actually also do not take any directions from a controlling shareholder, but we have to follow our own strategy. And that is, for the time being, Momentum 2030. We also have restructuring costs, which we still need to book to keep that in mind. We will do that a little piece probably this year, and that's included also in our guidance and more to come in 2027, very much dependent on where we stand then with the negotiations with the workers' council. And the rest very much depends on in talks and the results of any talks between UniCredit and Commerzbank. When it comes to the mix of cash and share buyback and our dividend policy, I assume we have been too subtle in our color coding. So we have now the first tranche of the share buyback up to EUR 1.2 billion, where we very quickly received the ECB approval and just wait for the Finance Agency to follow. [Technical Difficulty] We will look as we have done in the past years; we will talk to our investors and then decide on the final mix. It's very clear, and we said that also beforehand that we will increase the share of dividend because that is also in the feedback that we received from investors that they want to see more dividends. So you can assume that at least 50% of the capital return will consist of dividends.
Operator: Next question comes from Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank.
Benjamin Goy: You reiterated net interest income guidance assumes a pickup in run rate of about EUR 100 million. Now you mentioned a couple of points why this should be the case and particular rates, which seems to be hopefully a given. Just wondering where do you think are still the moving parts in terms of volume growth or deposit beta where there could be a surprise or you have actually good visibility to a much better run rate in the second half and going into '27?
Carsten Schmitt: Benjamin, thanks for the question. Yes, as you rightly say, first half of the year actually gave us a EUR 4.1 billion run rate of the NII, therefore, keeping it stable compared to the previous quarters despite lower rates. And we've already seen, as we expect, the impact of lower rates, especially in Poland in the first half of the year. So for the second half of the year, with the current Polish rates expectation being flat, we rather expect a positive impact from mBank given the volume growth that we are seeing. The biggest part in the uptick of the run rate of our NII in the second half will come from the replication portfolio, which will continue to actually roll into higher rates and therefore gain more traction. And then lastly, with the beta being stable, broadly in the portfolio and volume growth expected on the deposit loan side towards end of the year, we expect a slight impact from that. And then lastly, concluding with the ECB rate hike that we just saw and the landscape that we have ahead of us, that should clearly also support that stronger trajectory in H2. And therefore, we are confident to reach the EUR 8.6 billion in total for the full year.
Benjamin Goy: And maybe a second question, if I may. Have you seen -- I mean, clearly, the numbers are ongoing and you don't see an impact from your new large shareholder. Is there anything you noticed from early indicators, call it, RFPs in Corporate Clients or Wealth Management in June, July?
Bettina Orlopp: No. I mean, luckily not -- as I said also in my speech, I mean, we are very grateful for the trust and the loyalty of our clients, which is clearly supported by the high resilience and commitment of our team members who are out there to serve our clients. And actually, rather the contrary, I mean, look on our loan growth volume, which has been 16% up, look at our volume growth and securities volume, specifically the discretionary portfolio management, which is part of advisory, which is up 20%. We are in the lucky situation that clients value our business model, our value proposition and therefore, are loyal, and we intend to keep it like that. But it's indeed an effort if you have a lot of noise outside.
Operator: Question comes from Jeremy Sigee from BNP Paribas.
Jeremy Sigee: You gave some quite mixed -- sorry, I don't know if you can hear me.
Bettina Orlopp: Jeremy, can you just start again because I think we didn't hear the beginning of your talk.
Jeremy Sigee: I think I started talking before I was put into the call. Two questions, please. Number one, you talked about German corporate sentiment, and you gave some slightly mixed comments. There were some positives, including new orders, but you also noted some areas of weakness in sentiment. So could you just expand on that topic a bit more from your conversations with corporate customers, particularly Mittelstand. What are the strong points? What are the weak points? And then my second question on the UniCredit situation. I appreciate you need to talk to them, and you need to form a joint view. Do you have any view at this stage from your point of view on what are the most promising areas among their proposals or among what they can bring in terms of cooperation?
Bettina Orlopp: Okay. Thank you, Jeremy. So first on sentiment, yes, indeed, I would say it's a kind of a mixed bag, as I said. So when you talk to Corporate Clients, I mean, they clearly see the reforms taken by the government. However, and they appreciate that. However, they want to have more and faster. That is the story on that. And if you look on the investment side, we see a lot of investments happening. The unfortunate thing so far is that still large part of the investments take place in Europe or even abroad [Technical Difficulty] or in the U.S. And then clearly, you have a lot of volatility as we speak. So you have good numbers when it comes to order data, you have good numbers when you have -- we come to sentiment. But then on the other side, you still have the energy price situation. You still have the ongoing Middle East war. And now we have this new complexity say like that, which is the ongoing heat in Europe and the results of that. So it's basically yes, it's stable and -- but we expect to see more recovery in the coming quarters, specifically when we really see, hopefully, the positive results of the reforms kicking in and the sentiment further improvement and improving and hopefully also an end of the Middle East conflict. When it comes to your second point, I mean, we will need to sit down to talk, but we clearly will have to see whether we can join forces on specific things, large investment programs, which are not bringing us in difficulties because of the competitive situation. We will definitely need to compare products and value propositions, whether we can strengthen each other on that. And then clearly, at a certain point in time, we should also talk and see whether we can create any synergies by combining operations in a midterm target picture. So very much the things you would expect when 2 banks come together, both very successful.
Operator: And the next question comes from Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs International.
Chris Hallam: On the RWA... Can you hear me now?
Bettina Orlopp: We can hear you, Chris.
Chris Hallam: Okay. So just 2 questions on RWAs. On the RWA efficiency measures, would there be any offsetting impact from the output floors in later years, i.e., with the approvals you receive take you below 72.5% of standardized in which case you need to give some of that back as the output floors kick in? And then second, you said on the RWA approval measures, they may reduce the SRTs you do this year. Is there -- is that -- I guess, is there overlap on the specific RWAs, i.e., the bucket you get approval for is what you had earmarked for SRTs? Or is that just you're solving for an overall capital tailwind from RWA management? Or is -- are lower SRTs part of sort of the quid pro quo for the ECB approval? So anything just to understand that overlap? And then if you could also comment on how you see SRT pricing today?
Carsten Schmitt: Yes, Chris, let me start with the second question on the RWA relief that we are expecting once the model change has been approved. So approval, as we stated, we expect during Q3, and then we have a time line until Q2 next year in which we gradually see these reliefs coming in. We did not have these incorporated in the original figures for Momentum 2030. So you could see those coming in on top and providing tailwind and giving us optionality, quite frankly, in how we're managing RWA and generally our book. So it could have an impact on SRTs, but mostly on timing in terms of us having more flexibility in when we would go for relief of RWA and hence, also for capital. When it comes to RWA -- sorry, to SRT pricing, we actually did an SRT in Q2. We had around EUR 2.2 billion in relief. And as we already expected when we had our conversations in the last quarter, pricing at the moment [Technical Difficulty] is quite favorable for this. So we were slightly better off than the originally planned for 400 basis points per RWA. So we saw slightly more favorable pricing in the market. And regarding your first question, on the RWA relief and the expectation in line with the output floor, that's actually a pretty good question apparently. The end game, if you want so, for this is not yet final, especially when we're looking at the impact on unrated corporates. Generally, I think we can rather look optimistically into this, and we will revert once we have more clarity on the impact.
Operator: And the next question comes from Máté Nemes from UBS.
Mate Nemes: I have 2 questions, please. The first one is just a follow-up on the IRB scope changes. Could you clarify which areas the scope changes pertain to and what could be the approximate benefit here? And secondly, a question on deposits. We've seen some PSBC deposit decline in the second quarter. You also highlighted that some fast-moving deposits, sight accounts move to competitors. Could you comment broadly on the competitive nature in the market? And what does that do to liability margins? Have you changed anything on commercial strategy and how you intend to protect your liability margins while reaching higher deposit levels or higher volumes that you Carsten also alluded to when talking about the NII outlook?
Bettina Orlopp: I mean the deposit competition is very high as we speak. I mean, we have new entrants on the scene, very attractive offerings, offering partly 4% and stuff like that. That's not profitable from our standpoint. So we have a valid situation. We also accept the fact and that's also embedded in our planning that we let certain deposits go because, as you know, this is -- it's a certain group of clients, which we have specifically the ones who are more digital native. So it's also specifically for us at comdirect who are jumping around to say it like that and looking for the best interest rate offer. And therefore, it was a clear decision from our side not to participate in these offers and to compete against that and have that also in our own planning included. We will, however, also go out now with certain combined products, both for Commerzbank as for comdirect, see how this runs, but it's more really a more midterm thinking of gaining clients to also stay with us to also do -- bring their complete banking relationship to us than just only focused on the so-called interest rate service.
Carsten Schmitt: Yes. And to your first question regarding the model changes, I mean, what's in scope is broadly the corporate book, but it's only parts of the model, so partly addressing the book. The majority of the effect is coming from Commerzbank AG. We also expect a slight effect coming from mBank, but that's effectively the changes that we're seeing now.
Operator: Yes. The next question comes from Tobias Lukesch from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Tobias Lukesch: Also 2, 3 questions from my side, please. First, again, touching on UniCredit, the dialogue and potential timeline. Bettina, Carsten, maybe you can, again, maybe indicate what kind of timeline you have in mind in terms of really getting to results and communicating this? Is that more of a kind of year-end story, which will be communicated with year-end results? Or is there even a chance like to get these things done earlier? In terms of capital and the payout, you mentioned the 50% plus payout ratio for dividends. If there was more to come on the buyback side, I think you kind of hit 80% now of the expected value of around EUR 1.5 billion. Is there a chance that we get another buyback announcement already with Q3 results? Or would that only be communicated with the year-end results and the final take basically on the overall payout? And very finally, on the risk result, Carsten, you mentioned that it was more bits and pieces from smaller clients, more from the service sector. I mean we are now at EUR 200 million, which is kind of 1/4 of the total you're seeing. We are used to very low risk cost numbers over the past years and quarters. So yet no impetus from any other industry which concerns you? Or is there may be like one or the other bigger industry showing a little momentum at least, which could then be potentially extrapolated into the coming quarters?
Bettina Orlopp: Yes. So on time line, I mean, it depends very much on the progress we can make. And it's also very clear, I think, that it's in the interest of both institutions to move as quickly as possible, at least also on how to deal with the current situation of the less than 50% now and to get our arms around how we can create value in that. And yes, we will see how this goes. I mean the good thing is you will have a natural stop anyhow at Q3 results. And I'm pretty sure that you all will ask both of us where we stand. So you can be ensured that latest then you will get an update on where we are. When it comes to the capital with the payout, I mean, we have done in the past. We did -- we announced the second tranche with Q3, at least we reported that we would file for approval with the authorities. And in the moment, we have no reason to see why we should not follow this track, which we have now done twice also this year. So that's for that. And on the risk result, Carsten.
Carsten Schmitt: Tobias, on your question regarding the risk result, yes, with EUR 202 million in Q2, actually, we have a, I would call it, regular quarter in terms of the level of risk result. When looking into the year, my comments in the speech earlier were more of a general nature when it comes to the small sector companies. This is where we saw inclining default rates, but we are usually not so engaged in that sector. So that was more a broader-based comment on the economy in total. When we're looking into the German Mittelstand and also [Technical Difficulty] different segments that we are looking at, we are not seeing any outliers in the portfolio at this point in time that we could extrapolate actually into the next quarter. So take the current result and our guidance for EUR 850 million in the full year as being mindful of the current macroeconomic situation.
Operator: And the next question comes from Riccardo Rovere from Mediobanca.
Riccardo Rovere: Two, three questions, if I may. I hope you hear me well. The first one, Carsten, I just wanted to be sure I understood it correctly -- sorry, if you can just repeat what is the RWA saving that you expect from the new IRB models? And then just a confirmation, I understood it correctly, the RWA savings are expected to be mostly on the corporate book in Commerzbank AG. And is it mostly international exposures or is also Mittelstand or anything that is not the international exposure? And the other question I have is, if I understand it correctly, okay, the EUR 1.2 billion is supposed to be the first tranche of a buyback to be carried out in 2026. So I imagine you must have done your calculations that the liquidity of the stock is enough for you to go on with this buyback and maybe a second bit in the last part of the year. Am I right in saying so?
Carsten Schmitt: Riccardo, taking your RWA question first. As to the amount, we are expecting this to be in the mid- to high single-digit billion amount and phasing in over the next quarters until Q2 next year. The book that is actually affected by this is -- the majority is actually AG. So there's a minor part in mBank only, but on group level, mid- to high single digit. And underlying corporate is practically a mix throughout the portfolio. So it's not limited to international or MSB. It's a mix of the model [Technical Difficulty].
Bettina Orlopp: And to your second question, the answer is just yes, there is enough liquidity, and we look on that.
Operator: And the next question comes from Stefan Stalmann from Autonomous.
Stefan-Michael Stalmann: The first one is on the benefit from the replication portfolio this year, the EUR 600 million. Is that roughly evenly spread between the first half and the second half? Or are there bigger differences between the 2 half of the year? And the second question I wanted to ask about the growth in your nonperforming exposures, which has been quite steady still. I mean, plus 4% during the quarter, plus 9% year-to-date. There is quite a bit of growth. And maybe you can shed a bit of light on which areas of the bank are producing this nonperforming exposure growth, please?
Carsten Schmitt: Let me start with the replication portfolio. There is indeed a structure in the incremental return we're seeing over the course of the year, in line with the rolls that we see on a continuous basis, the effect actually is increasing for this year, we will see around EUR 400 million, call it, in the second half versus EUR 200 million that we saw in the first half. So that is the structure. And on the nonperforming exposure, there's actually really no specific structure that we would have to this. This is broadly based in our corporate book. That's what it is no outliers.
Operator: And the next question comes from Anke Reingen from RBC.
Anke Reingen: I hope you can hear me. Just firstly, on the deposit competition you mentioned in Germany. I just wonder, I mean, deposit beta is already 41%. You guide to 41% for the year. And how far are you sort of like does this guidance, what are you assuming in terms of deposit volume? Or is there a risk that the deposit beta has to move higher? If you can just talk about the competitive dynamic? And then sorry, just coming back on the RWA and the potential reduction. Does that mean the EUR 183 billion you guided to for 2028 could be lower? Or you mentioned as well you could revisit some of the securitizations just looking in terms of the net impact on the RWA guidance you previously provided?
Bettina Orlopp: So on the deposit competition, we feel pretty comfortable with the deposit beta. This is -- it's also priced in the competition, as you have seen. I mean, the second quarter was highly competitive, and we kept our deposit beta pretty stable. So no need to adjust. I mean, we have been cautious for the years after that, still assuming a constant increase because we believe that the competition will not go away. So we keep that in mind. But overall, it's priced in.
Carsten Schmitt: And on the RWA relief, a portion of the relief we will see this year. So not all of it. We will see the effect mostly in Q4, Q1 and Q2. And the effect that we would see this year could mean that we are revisiting the timing of our SRT. So net-net, we are not changing the guidance for RWA for year-end at this stage.
Anke Reingen: But sorry, just to follow up. For 2028, you gave us the EUR 183 billion of RWAs. So should that number now be coming down?
Carsten Schmitt: Yes, Anke, you're right. For '28, that number should be coming down since this effect was originally not in the plans for Momentum.
Operator: And the next question comes from Kian Abouhossein from JPMorgan.
Kian Abouhossein: First question is related to a more subjective topic around your main shareholder and the discussions that you're having might have. I just wanted to see if you can talk about Standort Frankfurt, Munich, if this is a topic for you as well as listing, if you, in your view, think Commerzbank should be listed continuously in case of a takeout. And I also wanted to see how the middle market German clients are currently Mittelstand clients are behaving recently in terms of acquisition of clients as well as turnover of clients. And then the second question I had just on the beta. I wanted to come back. If you could just briefly discuss the exit beta on the deposits as you've done in the past, that would be helpful.
Bettina Orlopp: So with your first topic, first question, I mean, really, we will evaluate all potential design criteria when it comes to target pictures. I think what should always drive everything what we do is that we protect the value and that we maximize value for our shareholders, but we also should keep in mind that there are other stakeholders, including staff, including clients. So therefore, I think let's start first discussions and then we come out with some recommendations. When it comes to the behavior of our Mittelstand clients, they're very loyal. So we haven't seen clients leaving because of the situation, which is important. They are, as you know, rather conservative, meaning they are still waiting for German government to implement more reforms. So we also see larger Mittelstand clients investing. They do that also together with us, but we do that most of them, not in Germany, but abroad. And they are clearly interested in -- when it comes back to our strategy, what happens to our international network because many Mittelstand clients rely on the fact that we can support them in their export business, and that is not focused only on 4, 5 countries, but most of the time goes really across the world and includes Latin America, Africa, Asia and other continents. And on deposit beta, I hand over to Carsten.
Carsten Schmitt: Yes, Kian, on the exit beta for Q2, we are pretty much around the average of the beta we're expecting for the full year. So call that close to 41%.
Kian Abouhossein: And if I may just add one more question since it's at the end of the call, pension reform. You haven't really mentioned that much. Can you just discuss how that's affecting you or how you see that, how you're positioned?
Bettina Orlopp: Yes. I mean we see that very positively. We also have reported that publicly that we support the -- we support the pension reform. And I think it's the right thing to do. And we will definitely benefit from it given the fact that we have very clear and ambitious plans on the net commission income side. So an increased demand hopefully starting from next year on when the implementation of the pension reform starting will also support us in delivering on our plans with respect to net commission income. But overall, we are very positive. I think it's the right step. I think you can do even more as always, but it's a good starting point.
Operator: And the last question for today comes from Borja Ramirez from Citigroup.
Borja Ramirez Segura: I have 2 follow-ups on Slides 10 to 12, please. Firstly, you have reiterated that Commerzbank is open to constructive discussions with its main shareholder. Could you kindly elaborate on what needs to happen before an aligned joint approach becomes feasible? And in particular, how should we think about the ongoing regulatory and supervisory processes, including the BaFin investigation as having any influence on the timing of such discussions? And then my second question would be on Slide 12, you referred to the potential value of an aligned joint approach. I would like to ask, could you elaborate where you see the greatest areas of strategic overlap between Commerzbank plans and the view of the main shareholder? And more specifically, how should we think about the role of the international business within any potential future alignment?
Bettina Orlopp: Borja. So I mean, the regulatory approval process is something which runs separately whenever -- and this is what we learned out of the press that there might be the completeness of the documents, and you have a 60 working day period where ECB has to decide. I think they can extend that to a certain amount. And then there are other approvals necessary coming from the EU, but also some other countries and that defines the regulatory approval process. But regardless of the regulatory approval process that we can and should work with the assumption that this goes in yes, confirmation of the deal and the tender offer, and therefore, we can start dialogues as we speak. I think the only thing what we have to keep in mind, we are still competitors, number one. And number two is we, as Commerzbank management team, have the obligation to protect the interest of our stakeholders and specifically also of our minority shareholders. But when keeping that in mind, we can have discussions about a joint approach. And first of all, I mean, we are in a situation where we do not have any structural changes but where we can just discuss how we deal with the situation where UniCredit has a little bit less than 50%, meaning we can align and that fits to your second question, we can align on where can we collaborate without getting into problems because we are competitors. And that includes the international network because we can clearly also provide access to that, but it also includes certain product areas where we can think whether we can benefit from each other's product ranges. And therefore, I think there is a lot we can discuss. And then clearly, we can also discuss how a potential target picture could look like and what kind of values you could create out of that. That's the task for the coming weeks and months, but we can start with it without waiting for the approvals. And the BaFin investigation is anyhow something completely separate and is something where only BaFin can speak about. So my understanding is that [Technical Difficulty] some of the questions. Thank you very much. And I wish you all a great day and a great summer, hopefully, even some summer holidays that has not happened yet. And we are also happy to take your questions afterwards. And thank you very much. Talk to you soon.
